Buy Ford

Among the Good News coming out of Dearborn these days is a three-for-three above-industry-average score with the latest J.D. Powers dependability study. That's better than Toyota (whose Scion brand came out way below average). That's better than Nissan. That's better than the venerable Mercedes-Benz or Audi.

Shoot, Mercury came in second, just beating out Cadillac.

Only Volvo of all Ford brands came out below average: Volvo is a Johnny-come-lately to the Ford stable; It's still very much a foreign brand; Volvo sales making up just 3% of the Ford total. Can this be allowed to slide without unduly tarnishing the American triumph of the Blue Oval?

In the month of July 2008, when all is supposedly caving in on the U.S. automaker, Ford's total car sales grew by 8 percent. Overall car sales in the U.S. were flat. "Industry-wide small car growth" was "approximately 9 percent". By contrast General Motors car sales fell 12%.

Ford Focus sales were up 16% in July from a year earlier; 26% year-to-date. Fusion sales were up 14% July year-to-year; 12% year-to-date. Even the Crown Victoria contributed with a 39% jump in July sales. The European Focus is coming to North America in 2010, along with a couple other Ford European models, such as Fiesta.

But cars aren't the big news at Ford. Ford is a truck company not a car company. They still rely on trucks for 64% of sales. How could this be good news with such high gasoline prices?

First of all, oil prices are falling--a $30-per-barrel decline in just a couple of weeks. Secondly, they should continue to fall right on through the upcoming presidential elections in November (especially if it looks like the Democrats will win). Thirdly, pent-up demand. Fourthly, the F-150, the Escape, the Edge, and the Flex.

The F-150 is that it is the best selling vehicle in the United States. And has been for some time. And Ford's coming out with a new version this year.

Time to buy Ford. At just over $5 per share how can you go wrong.

The General Conquers

Comparing sales in the U.S. for the Chevrolet Malibu head-to-head with mid-size sedan rivals from Japan is regularly done, resulting in a stomping from our Asian brethren: Chevrolet sold less than 17 thousand of the Malibu to over 42 thousand Camry in July 2008.

But the platform used to make the Malibu also underpins the Pontiac G6 and Saturn Aura. Adding total sales of the three sedans based on this platform yields sales from January through July of 2008 that almost equal those of the Honda Accord sedan, the new darling in the segment:40.7 to 41.2 average monthly, or 98.8% of the Honda number (not including hybrids).

And all the sales results on this new GM sedan platform spell good news. In their latest press release the General says:

• Malibu total sales up 79 percent!
  
• G5 sales up 17 percent!
  
• Aura sales increased 24 percent!
  

But what about Impala, the biggest selling "big car" in the U.S.? Does General Motors deserve credit for Impala sales in the hyper-competitive mid-size segment?

Let's see, it's built on a wheelbase almost two inches shorter than that of the Malibu, though a touch longer nose-to-tail overall. To the eye it certainly appears to be in the same size category. Yes, it's base price starts higher by more than a thousand, but average transaction price in June 2008 was virtually identical between the models: $22,413 for each Impala vs. $22,260 for Malibu. With average transaction price for the Malibu shooting skyward to $24,466 in July 2008 all bets are off.

Including Impala sales, which averaged over 25 thousand per month January through July 2008, it's no contest: the General moved almost 400 thousand mid-sized sedans for the period vs. less than 300 thousand of the sales-leading Camry (41% more). In July the General's advantage was still 120% over Camry.

That looks like a good ol'-fashioned stompin' on the Home Turf.