Leaners

The Democrats might tip in 2008 the states Bush won in 2004 by a margin of up to 10%, and more aggressively, up to 15%. But Democratic margins look precarious, too.

Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado in the Southwest. Bush margins in those states were all within the 10% range. Iowa, Missouri, and Arkansas along the Mississippi (maybe Tennessee and Louisiana, too, with the proper approach). Florida in the South. Ohio and Virginia, by extending the Northeast blue downward (West Virginia and North Carolina might be tippable too).

But Democratic margins in some of their big state wins don't look so robust. Pennsylvania Kerry won by only 2.1%, Michigan 3.4%, Wisconsin 0.5%, Minnesota 3.5%. Nothing like Bush's big wins across the middle of the country in places like Nebraska, Wyoming, and Idaho with above 35% margin in each. Illinois Kerry won with 10.5% and California with 10.3% Those might look "in play" to somebody down the line.